Two questions, answered from NOAA's raw event record for both tornadoes and severe thunderstorm / high-wind events: how often severe storms strike (frequency) and how hard they hit (strength).
Tornado frequency is flat-to-slightly-down. Severe wind reports rose about 57× since the 1950s, but that is overwhelmingly a reporting artifact (more spotters, more people and changed NWS practices), not more storms. Over the very same period, measured wind strength fell. Neither hazard shows any drift toward stronger events either: the share of violent tornadoes (EF2+) and significant wind gusts (≥75 mph) both declined. Frequency of reports ≠ frequency of storms ≠ intensity of storms. The one measure that has risen unmistakably is temperature, up roughly 3°F since the early 1900s and warming faster since 1970. See the heat section below.
Tiles marked in orange reflect report-count changes that are driven largely by how storms are observed and logged, not by the weather itself.
Counting events per year. Tornadoes are individually surveyed and reasonably consistent over time; raw wind reports are not, so read them with the caveat below.
Stacked bars split each year by state. Solid line = 5-year moving average; dashed line = linear trend across all 76 years, sloping gently downward.
Every logged severe wind event (gusts ≥ 58 mph / 50 kt) across the three states. The apparent explosion is the classic severe-weather data pitfall.
A mid-century peak, a long dip, a modest 2010s rebound, then a fresh decline. (2020s = 2020–2025.)
A near-monotonic climb that mirrors reporting history, not climate. Shown only to make the artifact legible.
Frequency and intensity are separate questions. Here we set counts aside and ask whether the storms that do occur are getting more violent. For tornadoes: the EF/F damage rating. For wind: the recorded gust speed. Neither is trending up.
Of tornadoes with a damage rating, the fraction reaching EF2 or higher, by decade. It falls to zero in the 2010s–2020s, when recent tornadoes here are overwhelmingly weak (EF0–EF1).
Mean damage rating of rated tornadoes. Same story from a different angle: intensity drifts down, from ~1.3 in the 1960s to ~0.4–0.6 recently.
Median (typical) and 90th-percentile (high-end) recorded gust. The typical gust is flat near the 58 mph reporting floor; the strongest gusts declined. Shown from the 1980s on, once speeds were recorded often enough to be reliable.
Fraction of wind reports reaching the "significant severe" threshold, by decade. It collapses from ~19% to ~2%, again the signature of an expanding, marginal-heavy report set rather than weakening physics alone.
No state shows a sustained climb. Maine (most active) peaked in the 1970s and 2010s; all three fall off in the 2020s.
The storm record shows no upward trend. Temperature is a different story. Statewide average temperature (NOAA nClimDiv data back to 1895) has risen unmistakably across all three states, with the pace roughly doubling since 1970.
Thin line is each year. Bold line is the 10-year moving average. Dashed line is the linear trend, rising about 0.27°F per decade. Recent years sit well above the mid-century band.
The warm season alone shows the same climb, up about 2.3°F between the first and last 30-year periods. Hotter summers are the part most people feel.
Warming rate in °F per decade. For every measure the pace since 1970 runs well above the long-run rate.